I can't believe people are still saying this and not paying attention to the real questions connected with biofuels. Ethanol is THE answer?!? Not so much...maybe an answer, but a very small one. Another article today pointed out a few of the reasons why, but I won't reiterate them, because I've probably ranted enough.
Instead, I'll be positive and uplifting. I thought it was funny that the second article about ethanol had a section at the bottom about obesity in South Africa and the new market for gyms, because my solutions for transportation energy and obesity are one and the same thing.
(Isn't it beautiful? That's what Matt gave me for an anniversary present yesterday.)
Monday, March 26, 2007
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3 comments:
Ultimately, I think that the best mechanism for powering society will be electricity (outside of human power) as through it you can have mass efficiency upgrades due to either its centralized upgrades (much easier to upgrade the efficiency of a Power Plant than it is to improve the efficiency of 1 million cars...) or the natural greenness of client side production (home solar panels, windmills etc). Look at Brazil- It already has stripped tons of its land to produce soy and yet how much ethanol do we have to show for it?!? I'm no expert but I would think that even if the whole world were to focus it's efforts on farming for biofuels and food, there would be a huge shortage. Not that it is a bad alternative since some activities (airplanes, space shuttles, etc) will always require high density fuels (and can't be handled through electricity).
I know you are a huge supporter of localization, but ultimately there are only two ways we (Earth as a whole) will return to localization: government mandate or world-wide poverty. The problem with government mandate is that it will either destroy an economy, and thus destory the power of that government (like that's going to happen...), or it will rely extensively on technology and tele-commercialization. Well the problem with an economy that relies on technology is that it becomes highly specialized, which often relies on consulting and travel...
Anyway, that's awesome that you live so close to so much and can drive your bike every where- hope that works out well for you!
You're absolutely right about electricity. But you're absolutely wrong about localization. Electricity will have to come from a diversity of sources, and in order for that to work, the sources will be localized. Electric cars won't be able to go as far and as fast as we're used to, so stores, homes, and businesses will have to be closer together. And technology, far from requiring travel, decreases the need for it; the internet has made it possible for almost every job to be performed from the comfort of your home, and the only reason everyone doesn't telecommute is because we're still stuck in a commuting/traveling tradition. Don't worry--we'll get out of that soon enough.
We won't need government mandate to create localization. It will happen naturally as local needs become more important than global ones. It's already starting to happen in a lot of places. And it won't cause poverty at all; it will improve quality of life.
"Electricity... sources will be localized"
-Not that it isn't ideal, but there are two big problems with that: 1) Economies of scale- it is more efficient to generate electricity at a single source and send it out. 2) There is huge up front cost to installing such equipment on the home side (I think this is what you are talking about...) and unless builders begin installing it (Again, would need government mandate as it isn't very appealing to the average American to pay 20K more for something that does the same thing in their mind) then it will be a long time in becoming established.
You said "Electric cars won't be able to go as far and as fast as we're used to, so stores, homes, and businesses will have to be closer together."
-But that assumes that electric cars are the standard, which is why I point back to my later points about government mandate. Electric cars have been a long time coming and without assistance are still a ways off from widespread acceptance.
"And technology, far from requiring travel, decreases the need for it"
-I said that localization will have to rely on technology and will certainly be a huge help, but technology requires specialization. Having spent a couple years in the consulting industry it will take much more than a sweet "Please" for businesses to break themselves of the face time and handshake basis by which they operate now. A face on a screen still has far less value than one in person.
"The internet has made it possible for almost every job to be performed from the comfort of your home."
-It is true that it makes it possible, but not most effective. Companies where the employees don't know each other will not work in every industry. The answer here really is localization in that an office will still be needed but with the people living near the office- but that transition will not go easily: offices have to relocate, people have to move, companies have to consolidate, city structures have to change... This happens on the order of decades not years.
"We won't need government mandate to create localization. It will happen naturally as local needs become more important than global ones."
-It all depends on the time frame you are looking for- new urbanization is a step forward but recreation of the American urban model (to a more European model) is decades away.
"It won't cause poverty at all"
-I said that poverty causes localization, not the other way around. If people don't have enough money to leave their local area they are "localized."
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